Stratfor’s Take on the Probable Outcome of the Hong Kong Protests

Here the two-bits from Rodger Baker, vice president of Asia-Pacific analysis at the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor (interviewed by FoxNews.com) on the Hong Kong student protests.  I agree that the most likely scenario is the third under which the authorities simply wait out the protestors.  Mr Baker similarly cautions against making strong linkages between the current protests and what transpired a quarter century ago in Beijing.

Mr Baker says the Chinese government has three different ways to handle the situation.

Officials might choose to take swift action. “They could decide very quickly and assertively and use the security forces of the Hong Kong police or beyond that, I think [though] that’s off the table for them and they do not want to employ that,” said Baker.

He suggests Beijing might allow limited political reform. “If they do that, they demonstrate that public protests are a viable way to alter the political requirements that Beijing puts on Hong Kong and they really can’t allow that to happen.”

Another option which Baker sees more likely is authorities waiting out the protesters. “Hope there is going to be either the protesters leave of their volition [or] that they run out of steam.

Baker cautions though that there are not too many similarities between Tiananmen Square and current protests.

“Hong Kong is very different than mainland China. Mainland China is at a very different stage of its development than what it was in the past, so a complete comparison is probably not entirely accurate between the two.”