Chinese Gov’t Think-Tank: China to Equal US 2012 GDP in 2020
Par for a government think-tank, this is a rather conservative forecast based on nominal GDP. Based on purchasing power parity (PPP), China will have more than equaled US 2020 GDP before then. And there is the issue of the RMB’s appreciation. The Conference Board of Canada recently predicted that the RMB will stabilize around 5 RMB:C$1 toward the end of the decade. Going just by exchanges rates, China’s GDP will have increased by 25%.
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The size of China’s economy in 2020 will be close to that of the United States in 2012, an economic official forecast on Wednesday. China’s gross domestic product is expected to reach 100 trillion yuan in 2020, equivalent to 16 to $20 trillion, Yang Weimin, vice head of the Office of the Central Leading Group on Finance and Economic Affairs, said at a press conference.
In 2020, China’s per-capita GDP will likely exceed $10,000, almost double the amount in 2011, according to Yang. By 2020, the country will double its 2010 GDP and per-capita income for both urban and rural residents, President Hu Jintao said at the opening of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China earlier this month.
Yang said the target of doubling per-capita income by 2020 will be met only when the per-capita disposable income of urban residents rises 7 percent every year and if the per-capita net income of rural residents increases 6.7 percent annually over the next nine years.
As the country’s central and western regions have huge potential for economic development, residents there will see their incomes rise faster than those in eastern parts over the next few years, the official added.
– China Daily