China’s Fracking Future
With crude oil prices hovering at just under US$100 a barrel juxtaposed to the steady decline in natural gas prices since 2011, it’s no wonder that the Chinese authorities have placed added importance on increasing the proportion of natural gas use in China’s energy mix to 10% by 2020.
One strategy is to import much more LNG from overseas suppliers through the building of a string of LNG terminals up and down China’s east and south coast. Currently, 5 terminals are up and running with another dozen being planned. But, by far the better strategy is to exploit the biggest technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas in the world. Interviewed last November, Chief of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Adam Siemenski remarked, “if the Chinese could do this, it would have enormous implications for them, and possibly for global LNG trade too”.
China’s Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) conservatively estimates the country’s shale gas resources locked in six giant sedimentary basins across the country to be 24.8 trillion m3, slightly ahead of America but the EIA puts it at 35.7 trillion m3, or about 48% more than the US. The basins are: Songliao in the northeast, Ordos in Inner Mongolia, Bohai along the Bohai Sea, Sichuan to the southwest, and Tarim and Junggar in northwest Xinjiang Province. The Sichuan and Tarim basins are considered to be the most promising and early development has concentrated in the Sichuan Basin due in part to its location in densely populated Chongqing and parts of Sichuan Province.
BP’s latest Outlook 2030 study predicts that China is en route to becoming the most successful country outside of North America in developing shale gas by that date. But, industry analysts say that in the short and medium term, China is certain to fall short of its target of producing 6.5 billion m3 by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2015), making its target of 100 billion m3 by 2020 even harder to reach.
Even so, Qianye-1, Sinopec’s first exploratory well completed a year ago in partnership with Conoco and Chevron in Qianjiang District of Chongqing into Sichuan, yielded a significant amount of gas. PetroChina in association with Shell will also drill their own blocks in the region. Potentially, between 150 and 200 wells can be drilled in Chongqing over the next three years plus more in neighbouring Sichuan.
But, China’s shale gas ambitions face a number of obstacles above and below the ground. Hydraulic fracturing, the injection of water, sand and chemicals into the ground at high pressure to release trapped gas, requires vast amounts of water which is in short supply in many areas. This is particularly true of the Tarim Basin which is one of the most parched regions on earth and far away from centers of fuel consumption. Meanwhile, densely populated Sichuan/Chongqing face serious water shortages with China’s per capita water resources at only 28% of global averages.
In addition, China’s basins are still at the earliest stages of exploration and deposits are deep in the ground containing higher levels of kerogen and clay that make them less brittle for fracturing and keeping propped open. Interviewed by Yahoo’s Maktoob News, Chris Faulkner, founder and CEO of Breitling Oil and Gas, said typically, it takes 8 to 10 million gallons of water to drill a well in the US but because of its shale geology, it takes 10 to 13 million gallons in China. Water-intensive fracking would thus put a heavy burden on already-strained water supplies not to mention the possibility of contaminating clean drinking water for millions.
Not only are the Sichuan deposits deep at nearly 6 km but horizontal wells must be drilled to unlock commercially viable gas that would stretch drilling to 7 km or more. But, a Reuters report opined that none of the technical challenges are insurmountable and China has multitudes of engineers and its SOE oil and gas companies bundles of funds to throw at them.
The Sichuan Basin is already full of conventional gas fields and over 18,000 km of pipelines and its Qiongzhusi and Longmaxi shale gas formations actually lie on top of conventional ones, at depths similar to several shale fields in the US. According to the EIA, the two massive formations that have 200-300m thick organically rich layers, could each produce 9.52 to 9.8 trillion m3 of shale gas that together would be more than any other country save the US, Argentina and Russia.
China lacks certain technology, know-how and equipment for deep and horizontal fracking but its oil giants have spared no expense in North America to gain access to development expertise and state-of-the-art fracking and other drilling techniques and technologies. CNOOC’s successful takeover of Nexen is mainly about acquiring assets and also know-how which it hopes will help in lowering costs for wells that in China may cost up to US$30 million to develop compared to only $6 million in the US.
BC School Applies to Become First Canadian School to Offer TCM Degree
If the school is approved, it will be a boon for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) profession in BC.
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The PCU College of Holistic Medicine in Burnaby has applied to the province to become the first school in Canada with the ability to grant a university degree in traditional Chinese medicine.
The proposal to the degree quality assessment board, which the school expects to submit within weeks, has been in the works since 2006, said dean John Yang.
Yang has no idea whether his was the school Premier Christy Clark had in mind when she mentioned the creation of a school of traditional Chinese medicine at a B.C. post-secondary institution during her throne speech Tuesday. Now, only diplomas are available through private colleges.
An increase in acceptance and demand has made a university degree possible for the first time, Yang said.
When PCU College opened in 2002, there were 25 students. This year, the school has 200 full- and part-time students.
“There’s steady growth as more and more people are willing to study and get into this profession. Our school began with a very small class and now, it’s a reasonable size according to our population,” he said.
Yang believes it’s time for a university degree, such as a bachelor of traditional Chinese medicine with a major in acupuncture. Most students spend at least five years and many international students desire a degree comparable to ones available in China, Japan or Korea.
The education ministry said Wednesday no decisions have been made what institution would house the new school.
Kwantlen University has also started to incorporate alternative health practices such as acupuncture in its pending bachelor of science in health science program, but spokeswoman Joanne Saunders said the school has no plans to start granting degrees. The courses could be used as a springboard for entry into one of the province’s private colleges.
All B.C. students are required to have two years of university education as a prerequisite of admission, and colleges are governed by the regulatory body College of Traditional Chinese Medicine Practitioners and Acupuncturists of B.C., which also administers certification exams. To become a registered practitioner, a student needs 2,600 hours of study including 650 hours of clinical work.
In 1999, 68 registered acupuncturists were recognized and granted licenses by the regulatory body. In 2003, there were 872, and in 2008 there were 1,350, according to the college’s registrar Mary Watterson.
“The number of British Columbians seeking TCM (traditional Chinese medicine) treatment continues to grow. The profession, albeit a couple of thousand years old, is relatively new in Canada,” she wrote in an email, adding the industry has had an interest in expanding into university studies “for some time.”
Other health care professionals have also adopted acupuncture, making it more mainstream, said Poppi Sabhaney, president of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Association of B.C.
“A lot of other professions have used acupuncture as a kind of fishing hook that everyone seems to love, and that’s why there’s a renewed interest,“ he said. “Others have seen how effective acupuncturists and Chinese medicine practitioners are. They take our best techniques and incorporate it into their practices. … It’s growing rapidly, and we welcome it.”
For the entire article, see: http://www.vancouversun.com/School+applies+become+first+Canada+offer+traditional+Chinese+medicine+degree/7961658/story.html#ixzz2KpxAXkQC
China’s Food Security
There are many alarmists who warn of a global food crisis should China actively procure grains on the international market. Others accuse China of land grabs in Africa and other continents for food production at the expense of the locals. This article by Katherine Morton of the Australia National University sets the record straight.
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The policy debate on China and food security tends to be rather neo-Malthusian.
The overriding concern is that China’s population will demand more food than international markets can supply. Some commentators worry that competition over food may become a trigger for international conflicts — there are plenty of pessimistic forecasts predicting future food wars and clashes over scarce agricultural commodities. What these alarmist accounts fail to consider is that the Chinese want to be self-sufficient. That desire has led to a domestic policy of independence that acts as a safeguard against price volatility and means the burden of supplying the Chinese market does not fall heavily on international markets. But can China’s policy of self-reliance endure?
China has always been preoccupied with feeding its own population. For many Chinese, the real economic miracle achieved over the past three decades of ‘opening and reform’ is the fact that China has managed to feed roughly 21 per cent of the world’s population on only 9 per cent of the world’s arable land. The government has taken notice of volatility in food prices in recent years and it is determined to support domestic production. China’s political leadership is especially concerned about this issue because exposure to price volatility in international markets could lead to social unrest and political instability.
For the complete article, visit: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/China-food-security-farm-purchase-development-pd20130214-4VVMR?opendocument&src=rss