Most Hong Kongers Want Protesting Students to Go Home: Poll

Posted by on Nov 20, 2014 in Blog | 0 comments

      Although the Chinese University of Hong Kong survey of community sentiment toward the Occupy Central protests has been mentioned in the press, it is worthy to take a more detailed look at its results.  Just after the poll’s release last Sunday, the police moved in to dismantle the barricades at the main protest site in Admiralty as a group of radicalized students tried to break into the Legislative Council building resulting in several arrests.

       A third round of telephone interviews was conducted in local Cantonese dialect of 1030 Hong Kong citizens 15 years and older by the university’s Center for Communication and Public Opinion Survey between November 5-11, the results (with a response ratio of 42% and margin of error of 3.1%) of which were released  on November 16.  The results showed Hong Kong citizens clearly feed up with the students’ rancor and demanding a swift end to the blocking of streets.

       Asked whether they supported the Occupy Central protests, 43.5% replied in the negative (extremely do not support or relatively do not support), nearly as many as in September (46.3%) when the protests began but up substantially from October (35.5%)  Those who vigorously or somewhat supported the protests declined to 33.9% from 37.8% in October.  The survey also discovered the younger the age cohort, the greater the propensity to support for the protests with over 2/3 (67.7%) of the 15-24 year old grouping strongly or relatively supporting the movement.  Moreover, the poll found the higher the education, the more the support.

       On the question of whether the students should retreat from the protest sites immediately, an overwhelming majority (67.4%) said they should or really should with only 13.9% saying they should hunker down.  As with their attitudes toward Occupy Central, the older the cohort, the greater the demand for abandonment.  Notably, 59.7% of the 25-39 year group wanted the students to leave and 53.9% of college or higher educated indicated the same.  Also, interestingly, 73.3% of centrists (neither China, business, nor pan-democrat leaning) and 80.4% of those without any political affiliation wanted the students to get out.  Even 39.9% of radical and moderate democrats agreed the students should dump their campaign.

       As to whether they trusted the police to do the right thing, most respondents (55.6%) said in the affirmative, up 11.5% over October.  Those distrusting the police fell from 28.6% in October to 20% this time round.  The police was graded 6.25 out of 10 for their handling of the students, up from 5.49 in October.  Asked whether they were confident about Hong Kong’s future, while pessimists (34%) outnumbered optimists (25.3%), the percentage of pessimists has steadily declined since September (45.6%) and October (37.7%) with optimism going up since September (21.2%).  Yet, sentiment about Hong Kong was graded at 4.8/10 above the range for pessimism (0-4) and up from September (4.22) and October (4.57).

       However, another poll conducted on November 11-12 Of 510 Hong Kong residents by American firm Selzer & Co. for Bloomberg Global Poll with a margin of error of 4.3% found 87% of respondents saying the protests did not divert financial activity away from the city, a fear that was greatly exaggerated by the foreign press who suggested global investors would flee Hong Kong for safer havens like Singapore.  Nonetheless, 57% still felt business would be driven away if the students stayed on while less than 1/3 (30%) believed the protests were unlikely to exert a palpable affect on the city’s position as a financial center.

       But, returning to the Chinese University of Hong Kong survey, ominously for the 2017 election of the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong SAR, 46.7% responded that the Legislative Council should not approve of any vetos on candidates made by the central government.  Although down from 53.7% in September (48.5% in October), it is still 10.6 percentage points higher than those wanting the Legco to vote in favour (36.1%) who have increased from 29.3% in September.  On the other hand, if the central government eliminates company and executive votes in the Election Council, leaving it entirely to individual voting by the ‘four big communities’ in Hong Kong society to elect members, then 45.4% would approve as compared to 35% opposed.

       So, there is still room for compromise and Hong Kong may again draw the eyes of the world during the run-up to 2017.