Figuring Out China’s Unemployment
The official unemployment rate, which stays suspiciously close to 4% in the deepest downturns and the wildest booms, is no reliable guide.
Following last week’s gross domestic product data download, the focus is on the outlook for China’s economy in the fourth quarter and beyond. China Real Time mines the best alternative sources of data on China’s labor market as a guide:
The best overall measure comes from China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. They publish a quarterly report on job opportunities and job seekers at local employment bureaus in 100 cities up and down the country.
The latest reading shows that in the third quarter demand for labor continued to outstrip supply. The ratio of job opportunities to job seekers stayed steady at 1.05, unchanged from the second quarter.
That’s a stark contrast to the 4th quarter of 2008, when the ratio plunged to 0.84 – reflecting mass layoffs in the export and construction sectors after the double whammy of global financial crisis and home grown real estate crunch.
A third quarter survey of more than 4,000 mainland firms by consultancy Manpower also suggested that most were planning to take on more workers, or keep their headcount steady, in the fourth quarter.
Manpower’s net employment outlook – the difference between the percentage of firms planning to add more workers, and the percentage planning to reduce headcount — edged down to 16 for the fourth quarter from 17 in the third. That’s in line with the average level in the years before the financial crisis.
– WSJ China Real Time Blog