China’s Energy Industrial Revolution

Posted by david on Jan 26, 2013 in Blog | 0 comments

A couple graphs in a lengthy Asia Times article caught my eye.    China is reducing its energy intensity as it rapidly modernizes, according to the authors. 

Figure 4 – China’s energy intensity, 1980-2008, and projected to 2050.

Source of primary data: historical energy intensity calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics of China data; energy intensity data 2010-2050 based on projections from the Energy Research Institute of China.

China, however, has been following a quite different pathway in terms of its energy intensity. In Figure 4 we plot its energy intensity since 1980, and project its energy intensity forward based on projections of researchers at China’s official Energy Research Institute. [7]

Since the growth of GDP is expected to be substantially higher than that of energy consumption in the next decades, the estimated energy intensity can be anticipated to decline quickly after 2010.

We interpret this chart to mean that China was able to accomplish the quite unprecedented feat of quadrupling GDP from 1980 to 2000 while “only” doubling energy consumption – thus accounting for the continuing decline in energy intensity (admittedly from a very inefficient starting point).

Figure 5: China: Projected carbon emissions from thermal power generation, 2000-2040

Source: Authors’ calculation.

This fifth chart tells a remarkable story. We can read off the level of CO2 emissions for 2000 (around 0.5 Gt CO2) rising to more than 3 Gt CO2 by 2010 and an anticipated level of 5.3 Gt CO2 by 2020 from conventional thermal power stations.

By integrating under the curve, we estimate that total CO2 emissions due to China’s fossil-fuel-based electric power generation over the next three decades between 2011 and 2040, would be about 140 billion tonnes.

Yes, China’s carbon emissions from electric power generation will continue to rise – but we anticipate that they will plateau in the 2020s and then start to decline – steeply, as thermal power generation declines.

For the entire article, see:  http://atimes.com/atimes/China/OA26Ad01.html