China Can Beat Its 2030 Pledge on Renewable Energy Output: IRENA
Under the China-US climate change agreement signed a couple weeks ago, China has pledged to cap emissions and up the amount of energy output from renewables to 20% from the current 8%. However, a recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) claims differently that China will only be able to raise renewables to 17% under a ‘current policies in place’ (business as usual) scenario. (It should be pointed out that IRENA overstates China’s current renewables capacities, stating the country had already attained 13% as of 2010.) There is already a loud chorus of nay-sayers and right-wing critics claiming China has pulled one over the US and/or the country won’t fulfill its commitments.
If we take IRENA’s report at face value, it means China will have to up its game even more to meet and even surpass its pledge. The report argues if China makes US$145 billion in renewables investment annually, up US$54 billion from current levels of investment, China would realistically be able to substantially increase energy output through renewables to 26% or 6% higher than its pledge. That indeed would be a great achievement but it remains to be seen whether China can afford that price tag. At the very least, however, as per an earlier post citing a University of Sydney China expert, once China makes a formal pledge, it sticks to it.
The report lays out a road map for China to meet its recently-announced target of capping emissions by 2030. China can double its renewable energy output to 26% by 2030 but only with an annual investment of $145bn.
“As the largest energy consumer in the world, China must play a pivotal role in the global transition to a sustainable energy future,” said Mr. Adnan Z. Amin, Director-General of Irena.
“China’s energy use is expected to increase 60% by 2030. How China meets that need will determine whether or not the world can curb climate change.”
Beyond business-as-usual
However, with current policies in place, the share of renewables in China’s energy mix will only rise to 17% by 2030. Irena suggest an annual investment of $145bn is needed – a $54bn boost beyond business-as-usual.
The higher renewable share will result in an annual saving of up to $228bn by 2030 when accounting for factors like human health and reduced emissions.
“China can continue its leadership in renewable energy by accelerating action in this area,” said Mr. Amin. “If China acts now to implement more renewable energy, it can reduce air pollution, enhance energy security, benefit its economy, and play a leading role in fighting climate change.”
China installed more renewable energy capacity in 2013 than Europe and the remaining Asia Pacific region combined. It is also a major exporter of renewable energy technology, accounts for two-thirds of global solar panel production, 90% of installed biogas systems, 40% of newly installed wind capacity in 2013, and provides 2.6 million jobs in its renewable energy sector.
– idie.net
The IRENA report can be downloaded from www.irena.org
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