Martin Lee Overstates the Case of China’s Promises on Democracy in Hong Kong: ABC Analysis

Further to a previous post refuting the has-been agitator for ‘true democracy’ in Hong Kong Martin lee’s wrongful claims that China promised full-fledged democracy in the Basic Law, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s (ABC) Fact Check special report has done a good service in clarifying whether Mr Lee is right in his claims.  Asked for the basis of his claim that democracy was promised to Hong Kong, Mr Lee referred to three documents that supposedly supported his claim: the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong’s handover, Hong Kong’s Basic Law, and international law.

Fact Check’s verdict:  Mr Lee overstates his case. 

 

Here are some excerpts from the lengthy Fact Check:  Was Hong Kong ever promised democracy? 

On the negotiations leading up to the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong’s handover:

…Britain’s chief negotiator and ambassador to China from 1978 to 1983, Sir Percy Cradock, said in an interview broadcast on ABC’s Four Corners a week before the 1997 handover, “unfortunately over the last four years we have given them the impression… they could have improved democracy now and also improved democracy after 1997.”

“That was never a possibility and when they’ve come to realize it, as they have now, they are naturally feeling bitter and disillusioned,” he said.

British diplomats to China, and later Hong Kong’s last governor, Chris Patten, have hinted at the difficulties in negotiating to have more stringent democratic principles enshrined in Hong Kong law, and the backflip performed by Britain on the issue as it struggled to maintain close diplomatic and trade ties with China.

On the Joint Declaration:

…The UK Parliament’s Select Committee on Foreign Affairs has intermittently reported on the status and stability of Hong Kong since the 1997 handover.

In a report released in November 2000, the Committee stated that during negotiations between Britain and China for the handover, there was a preference by both parties to leave out any reference to democracy, given “there was nothing approaching democracy in Hong Kong… when the Joint Declaration was signed [in 1984].”

The UK Select Committee concluded:

“The Chinese government has therefore formally accepted that it is for the Hong Kong government to determine the extent and nature of democracy in Hong Kong. However, there are reasons for doubting whether the Chinese government is in practice sanguine about the prospect of untrammeled democracy developing in Hong Kong

On Hong Kong’s Basic Law:

In 1990, China approved Hong Kong’s Basic Law, which is recognized as operating like a constitution governing Hong Kong, and came into effect after the handover in 1997.

Mr Lee says several sections of the Basic Law underpin Hong Kong’s right to democracy – Articles 26, 45 and 68, and Annexes I and II.

Article 26 reads:

Permanent residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall have the right to vote and the right to stand for election in accordance with law.

Article 45 states in part:

The method for selecting the chief executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the chief executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures.

Article 68 refers to the legislative council and says the “ultimate aim is the election of all the members of the legislative council by universal suffrage”.

Following the release of China’s August 2014 decision, vice secretary-general of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee Li Fei disputed calls to implement an internationally accepted definition of democracy in Hong Kong. He told a press conference that “international standards” clearly run against the Basic Law, and such “unpractical” calls had led to “a tremendous waste of time” in Hong Kong society.

“Having two or three election candidates will make for an efficient election system and complies with the opinions of the majority expressed during a five-month consultation conducted by the HKSAR government”.

On international law:

Mr Lee referred Fact Check to basic democratic rights enshrined in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights which the protesters say should extend to how elections are held in Hong Kong, because the language used in Article 3(5) of the Joint Declaration reflects certain rights contained in the ICCPR.

Hong Kong is not a signatory to the ICCPR. Instead, in 1976 the United Kingdom ratified the international treaty, and extended the protections contained in the document to its dependent nations, including Hong Kong. 

Crucially, however, it carved out Article 25 of the ICCPR and said it did not apply to Hong Kong. This was in recognition of the fact that Hong Kong was not a democracy.

That Article contains the right for any citizen, without unreasonable restrictions, to “take part in the conduct of public affairs, directly, or through freely chosen representatives”, and “to vote and to be elected at genuine periodic elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage…”

Academic Geping Rao wrote in a legal journal in 1993 that “The United Kingdom stated that based on the fact that no seats in the Legislative Council in Hong Kong were elected at that time, it would reserve Article 25 for the reason that its intent was not to require the establishment of an elected executive or legislative council in Hong Kong, where none had previously existed.”

“Changes have since occurred which put into question the necessity of continuing this reservation,” he said.

When Hong Kong later mirrored the language of the ICCPR in Article 3(5) of its Basic Law in 1990, it again left out the reference in Article 25 of the ICCPR to citizens being able to vote, “and be elected at genuine periodic elections”.

On Hong Kong electoral reforms:

…Beijing has the power to amend Hong Kong’s Basic Law. The NPCSC did so in December 2007, and again in August 2014 when it released rulings on how elections are to be carried out.

The NPCSC’s 2007 decision foiled hopes of democratic groups by ruling out direct elections in 2012. Instead, it suggested 2017 as a possible date to implement universal suffrage, declaring:

… that the election of the fifth chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the year 2017 may be implemented by the method of universal suffrage; that after the chief executive is selected by universal suffrage, the election of the Legislative Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region may be implemented by the method of electing all the members by universal suffrage.

China’s 2007 decision repeats the limitation contained in Article 45 of the Basic Law that a “broadly representative nominating committee” would be formed to nominate a certain number of candidates, who would then be elected “through universal suffrage by all registered electors of [Hong Kong]… and officially appointed by Beijing”. The size of the committee has been progressively increased from 400 in 1998 to 1200 in 2012.

The verdict

Martin Lee says Hong Kong was promised democracy and that three legal instruments prove it. British diplomats involved in negotiating the 1997 handover of Hong Kong to China have said no such promise was explicitly given. 

The legal instruments do not preclude a gradual and steady move towards democracy, although there is argument about how China and Britain, and now Hong Kong, define democracy.

Legal academics have various opinions: some say the documents support China’s position that chief executive candidates were always intended to be elected from those chosen by a committee; others say the documents prove China intended for Hong Kong to move towards a government based on universal suffrage.

The documents are ambiguous and can be interpreted to favour either side’s argument, however any claim that Hong Kong has been promised democracy should be tempered by evidence that China did not explicitly include a timetable for steps to universal suffrage, did not define democratic principles, and did not allow international standards for free and fair elections to apply in Hong Kong.

Mr Lee’s claim is overstated.

 

The Fact Check in its entirety can be seen at:  https://au.gwn7.yahoo.com/w1/news/a/-/local/25786050/fact-check-was-hong-kong-ever-promised-democracy/

 

Canada China Sign Pact to Extradite Criminals’ Ill-Gotten Gains

A couple months back, I posted urging the Canadian government to sign an extradition treaty with China on the heels of the Australian authorities agreeing to extradite seized assets of corrupt Chinese officials.  Now, the Canadian government has followed suit but the Canadian Ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques was emphatic to the China Daily that Canada had no plans to sign a treaty.  Although again slow off the blocks, Canada at least has agreed to do this.  Now, the pressure is on laggard US to ink a deal but I’m not holding my breath.

———-

Canada is set to sign a deal with China to return ill-gotten assets seized from those suspected of economic crimes, the official China Daily reported on Monday, as Beijing works to track down corrupt officials who have fled overseas.

The world’s second-largest economy has vowed to pursue beyond its borders a search, dubbed Operation “Fox Hunt”, for corrupt officials and business executives, and their assets.

With the deal Canada, one of the top two destinations for suspected economic fugitives from China, becomes the third nation to agree to help Beijing bring such offenders to book, following offers this year from France and Australia.

The pact will cover “the return of property related to people who would have fled to Canada and would have been involved in corrupt activities”, Canada’s ambassador to China, Guy Saint-Jacques, told the China Daily in an interview.

“No country should become a haven for the corrupt to seek refuge from the law,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a daily news briefing but gave no details of the pact.

China has extradition pacts with 39 countries but not the United States or Canada, the two places suspected economic fugitives are most likely to go, the Foreign Ministry says.

This month, France said it was ready to help track down people suspected of corruption who may be on French soil. In October, Australian police agreed to assist in the extradition and seizure of assets of corrupt Chinese officials, media said.

China this month asked the U.S. to help it track down more than 100 people suspected of corruption. At least 428 Chinese suspects were captured abroad by the end of October under the “Fox Hunt” campaign, state media reported.

Reuters

Takeaways From the ‘Occupy Central’ Fiasco

Here are 10 calmly reasoned lessons from the Hong Kong ‘Occupy Central’ protests offered by Han Zhu, a senior fellow at the Shanghai-based Chunqiu Institute for Development and Strategic Studies.  I would add a couple more, themes that I have elaborated on in past posts:  political protest cannot mask economic resentment of mainlanders; Hong Kong political reform cannot be pursued in isolation from the mainland.

1. Beijing will not budge under pressure.

2. Hong Kong citizens reject illegal actions.

3. Pursuit of democracy by undemocratic means won’t work.

4. Street politics lead to anarchism.

5. Street politics divide society.

6. Democracy can only be built incrementally.

7. Political turbulence hurts the economy.

8. Poverty and inequality must be tackled.

9. Fat cats are getting too fat.

10. Cooperation is the only way forward.

The full article can be seen at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/han-zhu/10-lessons-from-hong-kong-protests_b_6316096.html?utm_hp_ref=world

China Offers Iraq Help in Fighting ISIS

If this FT report is accurate, it means China is stepping up its involvement in the Middle East, albeit not with boots on the ground but through intelligence support and logistics.  China’s growing investments throughout the region requires greater engagement in the form of advisors, personal training, and the supply of certain arms and munitions.  The only exception to China’s reluctance to send troops abroad is dispatching peacekeeping soldiers to troubled regions such as Lebanon and Mali and personnel for anti-land mine operations as well as building roads and the such or escorting ships off the coast of Africa to fend off pirates under UN mandate.

In any case, due to its long standing principle of non-interference, China is hard pressed to get involved in any foreign-led expeditionary force, even at the invitation of the host country.  So, contrary to active Western imaginations and wishful-thinking, you won’t be seeing the Liaoning aircraft carrier sailing to the Persian Gulf and J-15 carrying out sorties into Iraq or Syria any time soon.

China has offered to help Iraq defeat Sunni extremists with support for air strikes, according to Ibrahim Jafari, Iraq’s foreign minister.

Wang Yi, Mr Jafari’s Chinese counterpart, made the offer to help defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, when the two men met in New York at September’s UN antiterrorism meeting, Mr Jafari said.

Any Chinese assistance would be outside the US-led coalition. “[Mr Wang] said, our policy does not allow us to get involved in the international coalition,” Mr Jafari told the Financial Times in Tehran, where he was attending an anti-extremism conference this week.

“I welcomed this initiative. I told him . . . we are ready to deal with the coalition and also co-operate with countries outside this coalition.”

China’s official policy is of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs. Although it does sell weapons to many other countries, China has avoided direct military involvement beyond its borders.

Growing economic and strategic interests have tested that policy. China’s navy began escorting ship convoys around the Horn of Africa after Somali piracy threatened oil and ore cargoes. Last year for the first time it contributed troops to a UN peacekeeping operation in Mali. A battalion of 700 Chinese troops is now joining UN Peacekeepers in South Sudan, with a mandate to guard Chinese-invested oilfields there.

Isis has taken swaths of Iraqi territory since June. The US has led the air strikes on the Islamist group’s positions in Iraq and parts of Syria over the past four months. Pentagon claims that Iran launched separate air strikes last month have not been confirmed.

China’s defence ministry declined to comment on Mr Jafari’s remarks. Hong Lei, a foreign ministry spokesman, would not comment on whether China was supplying air support or missiles. In their meeting, Mr Wang had told Mr Jafari China backed Iraq’s efforts to strengthen its anti-terror capacity, including intelligence exchange and personnel training, Mr Hong said.

“China has been fighting terrorism and has been providing support and assistance to Iraq, including the Kurdish region, in our own way, and we will continue to do so within the best of our capabilities,” Mr Hong said.

China is the largest foreign investor in Iraq’s oil sector and stands to lose the billions its state-owned groups have ploughed into the country if the fields are lost to the insurgents. Sinopec operates in Kurdistan, while China National Petroleum Corp has interests in the Rumaila field near Basra and in Maysan province near the Iranian border. CNPC has already in effect abandoned oilfields it operated in Syria.

Global Times, the Chinese newspaper, reported this week that Isis crews were dismantling equipment at a small refinery west of Baiji in which a Chinese company has invested for use at refineries the group controls in Mosul, Iraq’s second-biggest city.

Hong Kong Needs the Mainland More Than the Other Way Around

The Occupy Central protestors put on a brave face declaring “we’ll be back” as the Hong Kong police cleared them out of the Admiralty area which they illegally blocked for over 10 weeks.  I would underscore and amplify the summary below by Market Realist: those beleaguered students face some stark realities about Hong Kong’s relationship with the mainland.  As mentioned in a previous post, when Hong Kong reverted back to Chinese sovereignty in 1997, the port city represented about 18% of the mainland’s GDP; now it’s down to a mere 3% and within a decade, it will be just 1%.  The anxieties of the protestors behind the façade of electoral reform largely reflect this inexorable trend.

For the sake of ‘one country, two systems’, Beijing has maintained Hong Kong’s basic freedoms and rule of law and bestowed upon it an array of privileges that helps it prosper in the face of global downturns.  This is not even to mention the simple fact that most of the SAR’s electricity and water is supplied by the mainland along with the best produce and meats for their daily sustenance.   And, in a reversal of what the piece says is the mainland’s main dependency on Hong Kong, the mainland is increasingly becoming a major source of financial and human capital for the enclave.

Despite their rhetoric, the Occupiers won’t be able to reassemble because first, the police will be on the lookout for any such stirrings; and second, even if they’re able to muster some kind of mischief, given the rapid growth of the mainland and the heft it now carries, the central government will simply provide more preferential policies to other regions like the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the rest of the Yangtze River Delta region, the greater Pearl River Delta area, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei greater area, among others.  Central planners are even mulling to make these areas full-fledged FTAs.  Then, there is central and western China that are yearning for more incentives.   All of which makes Hong Kong less and less imperative for China’s growth needs.

So, suck it up Occupiers and salvage what you have left.

 

China is crucial to Hong Kong

Hong Kong still relies a lot on China for its income and growth. In the past decade, China has been Hong Kong’s largest destination of re-exports and supplier of imports. In 2005, China replaced the US to become the largest destination of Hong Kong’s domestic exports.

  •  China accounts for about 47% of Hong Kong’s exports and 50% of its imports
  • 1/5th of bank assets in Hong Kong represent loans to Chinese customers
  •  Tourism and retail spending from China accounts for 10% of Hong Kong’s GDP

The interdependence between Hong Kong and China

While Hong Kong’s dependencies on China remain central to any China-Hong Kong debate, China too has been and is dependent on Hong Kong in more than one area.

Over the years, China has been able to receive foreign capital (financial and human) through Hong Kong’s more developed and mature legal system and capital market, which has served as an important platform for it. The platform has also aided China in absorbing technological and management expertise from the world.

With such cross-dependencies, it only makes sense for China and Hong Kong to resolve their political conflicts before the repercussions start impacting investment flow into the area.

Market Realist