China Revises Its 2013 GDP Upward by 3% to US$9.6 Trillion

Posted by on Dec 17, 2014 in Blog | 0 comments

An earlier post this month cited the IMF and other sources that China’s GDP measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) has officially surpassed the US’s, a major milestone on the road to completely eclipsing the US in exchange rate terms which should occur sometime around 2020 or a little later.

With Chinese statisticians raising the country’s 2013 nominal GDP figures by 3% to US$9.6 trillion and projecting 2014 growth to be in the neighbourhood of 7.4%, China’s 2014 nominal GDP should fall in around $10.3 trillion, almost exactly the same threshold achieved by the US in 2000.  Supposing a growth rate of around 2.5% for the year, the US should grow to about $17.84 trillion.

On the other hand, measured by PPP, China’s GDP for last year would be $18.13 trillion as opposed to $17.6 trillion and projecting the same rate of growth for this year, China’s 2014 PPP GDP may top $19.47 trillion.

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China on Tuesday raised its official estimate of last year’s gross domestic product, possibly moving closer to passing the United States as the biggest economy.

Last year’s official GDP value will be raised by 3 percent following a regular economic census, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Ma Jiantang, said at a news conference.

Ma gave no details but based on previously reported data, the increase would make 2013’s GDP about $9.6 trillion or just under two-thirds of U.S. output of $16.8 trillion.

China’s growth fell to a five-year low of 7.3 percent last quarter. The economy grew 7.7 percent in 2013 though that figure is likely to change after the revision of the year’s GDP estimate.

Analysts expect the ruling Communist Party to cut next year’s growth target to 7 percent. But that still is more than double the 3 percent forecast by the International Monetary Fund for the U.S.

China is forecast to become the biggest economy as early as 2020, though its income per person would be much lower than developed nations such as the U.S.

In 2009, the government raised its estimate of 2007 growth from an already high 11.9 percent to 13 percent. That meant China moved ahead of Germany as the third-largest economy behind the U.S. and Japan.

In 2010, China passed Japan as the second-biggest economy.

– AP