Predictions for Canada’s Medal Count and the Big Three at the London Games

Posted by david on Jul 20, 2012 in Blog | 0 comments

Well, it’s a week to go for the London Olympics.  Here are some predictions about Canada’s performance and that of the top three total medal contenders.   Predictions are all over the map but it seems to be toss-up between China and the US for the top spot with Russia coming in third and perhaps UK fourth with its home field advantage. 

Canada:

Daniel Johnson, a Canadian-born professor of economics at Colorado College, predicts that Canada will take 17 medals in London and rank 15th overall.  Based on a set of economic factors such as per capita income and population, his model has proven accurate over six consecutive Olympics, averaging a correlation of 93% with actual medal counts, and 85% for gold medals.

His forecast is more pessimistic than the Canadian Olympic Committee’s goal of finishing in the top 12, which would be one better than 13^th at Beijing.  Back then, the prediction was Canada would get 17 medals and four golds.  Canada ended up with 18 and three golds.

Jeremy Freeborn, a sports journalist for the Examiner, agrees: “After several months of research and statistical analysis, I am ready to project that Canada will win 17 medals at London…I am predicting twelve medals will come in four sports– diving, rowing, wrestling and cycling”.

Top Medals Countries:

In an interview ahead of the 100-day countdown to the Games, organizing committee chief Sebastian Coe predicted China would top the table, irritating the head of the USOC.  He said China has expanded its sporting prowess beyond its traditional strengths.  “I think it will be China, U.S., and then Russia…I just think if you look at it, in its entirety, (it will be) China”, Coe said.

Luciano Barra , a former senior member of the Italian Olympic Committee who projects Games results, has China topping the overall and gold medal count with 103 medals — 43 gold, 31 silver and 29 bronze.  The U.S. will finish second with 82 medals — 35 gold, 19 silver and 28 bronze and Russia third with 76 — 30, 22 and 24.

Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth predictions:  Overall, the US will win 103 medals followed by China with 94, Russia with 67, and the UK with 62 but China will likely snatch 48 golds and the US 35.  Tuck managed a 95% accuracy rate for the total medal count at the Beijing Games. Its formula similarly takes into account each nation’s economic development, measuring per capita income, population, prior Olympic success, and other factors.

Professor Johnson (above) also predicts the US will be on top, followed by China and Russia, with Great Britain placing fourth.  This year, Professor Johnson re-calibrated the model, matching 60 years of historical data with a correlation of 96% for all medals and 95% for gold medals.

USA Today projects China will take top spot overall with 94 medals, followed by the United States at 88 and Russia at 81 but the US will edge China in golds by a 41-24 margin.

The U.S. Olympic Committee wants to win the medal count but won’t name a specific goal to avoid creating unrealistic expectations.

The China Olympic Committee likewise did not set an overall target although specific teams may have.   

The top 10 medals table forecast by Robin Scott-Elliot, a sports journalist for UK’s Independent newspaper.   Don’t think Great Britain will beat Russia, however. 

1.   United States  2. China  3. Great Britain  4. Russia  5. Germany  6.  South Korea  7. Australia  8. France  9. Japan  10. Italy